Iran has agreed to return to nuclear talks — but don’t expect a deal anytime soon, experts

Iran has agreed to return to nuclear talks — but don’t expect a deal anytime soon, experts say

Iran will resume talks with six world powers before the end of the month, its chief spokesman said on Wednesday to reform the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted sanctions against the Islamic Republic in return.

But the agreement is still far from a decision, experts have warned, or trade is still in full swing.

The announcement comes amid growing tensions between Iran and the West as Tehran terminates a nuclear deal to violate the deal. The Iranian government is calling for peaceful progress, but UN Secretary-General Rafael Grossi said in late October that Iran would have the necessary equipment in “a few months”. Build a nuclear bomb.

Negotiations that began under Joe Biden’s term were suspended after the election of a hard-working and anti-Western pastor, Ebrahim Raisi, in June, which some see as a planned delay.

“I do not expect an agreement shortly because Tehran’s delay plans and Tehran’s messages and new plans clearly show that they want to take strong action and tough negotiations,” Sanam said. Vakil, Deputy Director of the Organization. . Northeast Middle East program at Chatham House.

Vakil noted that Iran’s chief negotiator, Kani, also refused to meet E3 – the German, French, and British foreign ministers – in a joint manner, ”he said.

He added: “I expect the negotiations to last for several months, and we should be prepared that such negotiations do not see the beginning of an agreement.”

Political analyst Eurasia Group now explains that it believes that “the renewal of Iran’s nuclear deal will not happen next year because the rapid rise in Iran’s nuclear power and high demand could make the 2015 deal an inappropriate deal,” its analysts wrote. in the mail. Note. Wednesday page. , adding that they have a contract by 2022 at 30%.

Initially, he saw next year’s agreement as a viable option for Iran’s difficult economic situation and its importance for lifting sanctions. Former President Donald Trump, who left the Obama administration in 2018, lifted tight sanctions against Iran, leading to higher inflation and a fall in its currency.

But “Iran’s continuing instability and the rapid deployment of its nuclear program will make it difficult for negotiators to reach an agreement next year,” Eurasian analysts wrote.

The State Department said earlier this month that it wants negotiations to continue “as soon as possible” and said the White House had made it clear that if negotiations failed, we would be prepared to move to a new election, “even if it was not specified.

Iran’s sharp reduction in compliance with the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, included increasing uranium enrichment and refining outside the JCPOA’s borders and putting conditions at the forefront of the international community. say it’s scary.

Tehran demands that its measures fall within its independent dimension and may be suspended if the United States lifts sanctions. Meanwhile, the Biden administration says it wants to return to the negotiating table but will lift sanctions if Iran first manages to reverse JCPOA violations.

The result of the long delays in the agreement has been announced for Iran. When Iran cuts the number of bombs to an “explosion time” of up to three months, Israel has a good chance of launching a devastating attack, and the U.S. and its allies will have to weigh more sanctions or sanctions. other countermeasures push the two countries forward. conflict management.

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